Investing for the crash, planning for Armageddon

[Gurdur]

On JREF they got a new "Business Skepticism" subforum now, seeing as to how JREF supposed to be THE skeptic board, now they wanna be all skeptical about business, and they do it emptily, had one otherwise usually rational poster over there declare snottily and skeptically that there was no shortage of oil at all -- even though oil has gone from $25 to $120 a barrel over 6 years.


You look at this kinda crap, and you think, "WTF?"

So I popped in and contributed my own POV, and I reproduce my POV here for you too.

Investing for the Big One, the Crash That'll Rattle Your Bones, etc.

My answers are below (to) someone else's (quoted) questions.

Armageddon: What would you invest in? ....

I would invest in a ferret that can run up trouser legs.

You know, if there's a guy over there with a tin of food and a honking big automatic rifle with all-spazebo accessories and a ten-year's-worth collection of Soldier Of Fortune magazine issues, and I'm over here with a ferret trained to run up trouser legs, you know, dude, at the end of it all, I'm going to have the whole palooka, the rifle, the all-spazebos, the tin of food, and the ferret too. And I can use the magazine issues as bonfire starters, which is all they're good for.

And ferrets are re-usable, you know.

And if the other guy is one of those spineless, nutless wonders, when a stoat or ferret or long-tailed weasel is just too big a calibre to use fairly on him, there is always the Least Weasel, you know.

- A toolkit. A collection of tools of various types ....

I would train stoats to collect tools for me as needed.

- A renewable power source.

I would get a honking big hamster wheel, attach a dynamo to it, and get my weasels, ferrets and stoats to run endless circles in the wheel. Massive power in your average stoat, you know.

- Whiskey. Obviously only for medicinal reasons

I would occasionally give my weasels, stoats and ferrets whiskey, as a reward for running up other peoples' trouser legs, gets rid of the bad taste for them. Gotta be kind.

[verte]

That was so good that I forgive you for making me inhale coffee.
I suppose they didn't appreciate your finely honed business sense.

[Gurdur]

They've ignored me so far. My usual fate there.

But I'm on a roll. Just added the below in reply.
_______

The point is that if you wish to operate at a profit after Armeggedon, it would make sense to do a cost/benefit analysis ahead of time and try to determine the most profitable thing to sell that is not quite profitable enough to have stolen.

A good ferret fetches a high price. By force of trouser-leg, if necessary.

[verte]

They lack both a sense of humor and survival business sense. They'll change their tune allright, when they come crying to you for a ferret or two.

[Bud]

Channel 4 did a documentary called Life After People, on how long it would take nature to erase evidence of our civilisation after our extinction (around 10,000 years, they reckon, with one or two exceptions). Apparently St Barb and some others from her board are planning on sailing across the Atlantic and heading to the Hoover Dam, because that will be one of the last surviving structures and will continue to generate electricity.

I did ask what was wrong with small, self-sufficient generators, but she just looked at me like I was an idiot.

[Gurdur]

Originally Posted by Bud

... she just looked at me like I was an idiot.

Don't worry, women always look at me like that in real life, except when they're looking at me like I was a psychopath. I seem to have a natural talent for making them bemused, unamused and cross.

I'm thinking of investing in ferrets to distract them.

[Gurdur]

Originally Posted by Bud

....on how long it would take nature to erase evidence of our civilisation after our extinction ....

'Twould take a good ferret around 20 minutes.

[Quath]

Shortage of oil is hard to measure. For example, we have about twice as much of tar as oil. But it takes about 1 gallon of tar to make 1 gallon of oil. But that is still a lot. There is a lot of oil in abondoned fields. The problem with these two is that it is expensive to get the oil. So it is a shortage in cheap oil.

But a lot of the rise in price of oil appears to be based on speculation, just as the housing boom was based on speculation for a large part. There is also little incentive for people to lower the price for oil. It part of game theory whee if everyone agrees to shorten the supply, everyone can charge high prices. It is illegal to formally agree to the practice, but if people just happen to make such a decision without communication, it is hard to prove they are acting as a pesudo-monopoly. But eventually, someone does lower their prices and then it is a race for customers. But I doubt oil will ever go very cheap again.

But after reading about the ferrets, I think I would just invest in a ferret farm.

[BeaverIslander]

I think I would start making ferret chow.

[Gurdur]

"Shortage" is relative, agreed; but it could be no other way than relative, unless we were all buried in the stuff everywhere. But that there is a shortage is a simple outcome of inelastic supply combined with rising demand -- and I will add that all the evidence points to peak oil being reached very soon; unfortunately, the objectors are ladening the term "shortage" with emotional baggage that the term simply does not possess logically, so they object to its use -- but only because of their own invalid baggage, so to speak.

That there is a speculative bubble is granted. That this is a really interesting point you raise, Quath, is granted; the implication is, when does the bubble burst? But there is a real shortage behind the bubble too.

Meh, I should use ferrets on those on JREF instead of logic, works faster, bites harder. Much harder. Much much harder.

[homo hirsutus]

Originally Posted by Quath

But I doubt oil will ever go very cheap again.

Actually, considdering the damege burning oil does to the environment and how much work can be done with a gallon of gas I would say it's still pretty cheap. Don't get me wrong, I don't like paying more than I have to, but if the price represented the true cost than we would be paying a lot more.

Besides, like you said, there's plenty of it there we just can't pump it fast enough for cheap enough.

[Bud]

Originally Posted by Gurdur

'Twould take a good ferret around 20 minutes.

Ferrets and whose army?

Actually, the termite army led by one or two ferret generals would do a pretty sound job.

[homo hirsutus]

Originally Posted by Bud

Actually, the termite army led by one or two ferret generals would do a pretty sound job.

Yeah, when termites evolve the ability to digest plastic.

[Gurdur]

See?

You're getting it, Bud, you're getting it.

I once lived in a termite-infested wooden house; then one year a column of army ants went through. No more infestation after that.

Insects + ferrets, insects + ferrets. We'll be the coolest and the richest, Bud, faster than a ferret up a drainpipe.

[Gurdur]

Originally Posted by homo hirsutus

Yeah, when termites evolve the ability to digest plastic.

They will eat through stuff they cannot digest to get to stuff they can. I've seen termites go through thin lead sheeting (a lead box) to get to paper.

Never underestimate your average termite or ferret. Cunning little buggers they are.

[Bud]

Originally Posted by Gurdur

We'll be the coolest and the richest, Bud, faster than a ferret up a drainpipe.

Or locusts through a maize-field.

Thoughts...

[lucky mud]

Rats and ferrets. Can't beat that.