Peak Oil: The Movie

[Gurdur]

A new documentary has been made on the Peak Oil problem, entitled "A Crude Awakening: the Oil Crash". You can read all about it here (http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/news/archives/2006/11/02/film_turns_black_gold_to_black_death.html)

[Puck]

*another one I can't bear read. really, really doesn't want high blood pressure headache today*

[verte]

My god. That is utterly terrifying. And we are rushing blindfolded right toward it, what the hell???

[Pastafarian]

I'm strongly in favor of reducing our use of petroleum products, but I'm skeptical of this sky-is-falling scenario.

Over the years I've heard plenty about disasters just about to befall us. They rarely occur. Malthus warned that the world's population would outrun the food supply 150 years ago. The New York Times warned in the mid-seventies that we were facing the rapid onset of a new ice age. This "peak oil" warning came up thirty years ago...right about when oil prices peaked, shortly after which they fell steadily for a couple of decades.

It seems to be human nature to believe doom is just around the corner. This peak-oil scare seems one of many secular versions of the Apocalypse.

Let's not panic, but let's find other ways to fuel our prosperity. Crying out that the end is near just cuts into the credibility of a legitmate cause.

And I, for one, have some retirement money invested in oil stocks. That's a hedge against the coming calamity to rise out of the oil peak. :)

[Gurdur]

.......but I'm skeptical of this sky-is-falling scenario.
Let me put it this way: the jump from $ 25 a barrel of oil to $ 100 a barrel of oil took ... what? Six or eight months?
Over 10 years, roughly 1985 to 1995, IIRC the price of good shipping coke coal climbed 900 %.

That is the scenario we're looking at; steady rise in price of oil and all subsequent products (petrol etc.) as well as rise in coal. A steady rise intersparsed with sudden big jumps. There will be the normal downward spikes (one is happening right now), but the whole average and median courses will be steadily and sharply upwards.
And I, for one, have some retirement money invested in oil stocks. That's a hedge against the coming calamity to rise out of the oil peak. :)
Good idea. But may I suggest oil stocks are great, but NOT airline stocks?`

Not that it worries me personally; I have no money and no money for stocks. My house is the only such thing I own. But seriously, airlines will get buggered nastily (airline travel bveing priced out of average reach by oil-price rises), so oil stocks are great, but not semi-trailer or plane stocks.

[Pastafarian]

Not that it worries me personally; I have no money and no money for stocks. My house is the only such thing I own. But seriously, airlines will get buggered nastily (airline travel bveing priced out of average reach by oil-price rises), so oil stocks are great, but not semi-trailer or plane stocks.
In this country, where the streets are paved with gold, pensions have gone the way of the nickel cup of coffee, so we're on our own providing for our old age. No airline stocks for me, although over the short term they've done okay (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AMR&t=3m).

[Pyrogenesis]

The New York Times warned in the mid-seventies that we were facing the rapid onset of a new ice age.

Which should teach you to not get your science news from daily newspapers. That scientists predicted a coming ice age is a pure urban legend.

[Pastafarian]

Which should teach you to not get your science news from daily newspapers.
Like this one (http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/news/archives/2006/11/02/film_turns_black_gold_to_black_death.html)? :)

[Gurdur]

Pastafarian has a point there. And Pastafarian does make a further point with the "secular catastrophe" stuff. I disagree in this case, but Pastafarian makes good points.

[Seb]

Thanks for that, Gurdur.

I remember reading about this film on the ASPO website.

On Sunday the BBC's Panorama will talk about Britain and Gas shortages.

The High Price of Gas (http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/panorama/6113218.stm)

Soaring gas prices in Britain are a symptom of the country's failure to spend its historic North Sea windfall wisely, experts have told Panorama.
Long-term this could mean higher prices for consumers, loss of jobs and even a threat to national energy security, senior industry figures have said.

Some experts believe the industry failed to plan for the current steep fall-off in domestic supplies.

They warn the UK will have to learn how to play power politics with energy.


Will be available from the website on Sunday night.